Key takeaways:
- November top-line sales declined relative to October, but year-to-year growth held close to a record pace. Both trends indicate adjusting to staying home during the holiday had a bigger influence on retail spending and channel choice than traditional gift buying.
- Growth in the grocery channel suggests consumables spending picked up in November, partly due to a pullback in restaurant sales.
- Select shoppers are funneling their money toward staying busy, healthy, or more comfortable during the winter months through the home improvement and sporting goods channels.
- Shoppers avoided in-store Black Friday sales as indicated by a steeper decline in the apparel specialty, department store, and consumer electronics specialty channels. Mass retailers’ Black Fridays likely fared better.
- October and November growth indicates holiday growth will surpass Kantar’s fourth-quarter forecasts, which were released in September, but the declining month-to-month trend suggests the holiday period will end on a weak note for all but a few retail channels.
Top-line sales for core retail held steady in November on a year-to-year basis. Some of this was due to shoppers staying home more instead of doing traditional holiday shopping, as indicated by a pullback in restaurant and bars sales (-17%). (Channel retail sales data from recent months is available at the end of this piece. Kantar Retail IQ clients can access more charts.)
Nonstore vs. brick-and-mortar: Nonstore, including online, accelerated to record growth in November, offsetting slower brick-and-mortar growth at least in aggregate. Based on third-quarter data, brick-and-mortar soft goods and department store channels were unlikely to have made up for steeper declining sales in November in their respective online banners during the traditional Black Friday period.
Supercenter, club, and small-format value: This combined channel picked up in November after slipping in the previous month. Sales data available only for months prior to November indicate that the small-format value channel is likely posting double-digit gains over the holiday but that they are slower than they were in the midsummer period. Big-box mass retailers have increased their in-store growth over that period in addition to rapid online sales.
Supermarket: This channel jumped to its strongest growth since June even though food inflation was slower than it was earlier this year.
Drug, health, and beauty care: This channel posted moderate growth in November. Data from the previous month indicates growth in the narrower drugstore channel likely outpaced the broader channel.
Home improvement: This channel held close to a record pace of growth in November.
Apparel, jewelry, and shoe specialty: Sales declines steepened in this channel for the second straight month, a bad sign for holiday sales for most soft goods specialty retailers even after taking into account their online banners.
Traditional and discount department: This combined channel posted its worst sales decline since May.
